週初に知っておくべき5つのマーケット情報～Top 5 things to watch in markets in the week ahead
Top 5 things to watch in markets in the week ahead By Investing.com
要約---------------
連邦準備制度の役員がワイオミング州ジャクソンホールでの年次会合に集まり、連邦準備制度議長ジェローム・パウエルのスピーチが主要なハイライトとなる
中国の不動産セクターの危機が深まる中、欧州圏と英国からのPMIデータが悲観的なムードを増す可能性がある
パウエルのスピーチは中央銀行の7月の会合の議事録が、多くの政策立案者がインフレへの上方リスクを懸念していることを示している後に設定されている
中国の不動産セクターの危機が深まる中、世界第二の経済大国である中国の経済が既に弱体化していることへの懸念が高まっている
欧州圏と英国は水曜日にPMIデータを発表する予定で、これにより、欧州中央銀行が9月に再び利上げを行うか、英国銀行が大幅な利上げを選択するかどうかの洞察が得られるかもしれない
原油価格はOPEC+の主要国であるサウジアラビアとロシアによる供給削減の期待を上回る、世界的な需要の見通しに関する懸念が増加する中、先週最大の週間損失を記録した
●要約ここまで------
本文ここから--------------------------
Investing.com -- Federal Reserve officials gather for the central bank’s annual get-together at Jackson Hole, Wyoming with a speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell the main highlight. The deepening crisis in China’s property sector will remain to the fore, while PMI data out of the Eurozone and the UK will likely add to the gloom. Here’s what you need to know to start your week.
* Jackson Hole
Investors will be looking to a speech by Fed Chair Jerome Powell for clarity on the economic outlook and the future path of interest rates.
Powell’s speech, set for 10:05 am ET on Friday, comes after last week’s minutes of the central bank’s July meeting showed that most policymakers are still concerned about upside risks to inflation, indicating that further rate hikes cannot be ruled out.
Investors will be focusing on whether the Fed head believes more policy tightening will be needed to bring down inflation, or if enough progress has been made to keep rates on hold. Market watchers will also be on the lookout for any clues on whether the Fed is weighing the prospect of rate cuts in 2024.
Traders see an 89% chance of the Fed holding rates at current levels at its September meeting, according to Investing.com's fed rate monitor tool.
* Equity markets
With no major catalysts driving markets, investors will be focusing on Powell's speech on Friday for clues on the interest rate outlook as well as earnings from chip designer Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA), which is due to report on Wednesday.
Nvidia has had a stunning rally on expected growth in artificial intelligence, nearly tripling in value year-to-date.
Wall Street’s three main indices ended lower last week after a spate of strong economic data caused investors to dial back expectations of rate cuts and drove up government bond yields.
Anxiety over China’s worsening property crisis and its impact on the country’s weakening economy also weighed on market sentiment after embattled developer China Evergrande Group (HK:3333) filed for U.S. bankruptcy protection on Thursday.
* China woes
Expectations are mounting that China could make a cut to the loan prime rate - meaning lower mortgage rates - as soon as Monday, amid fears that the unprecedented debt crisis in the country's property sector, which accounts for roughly a quarter of the economy, is starting to spill over into its financial system.
China unexpectedly lowered several key interest rates last week, but analysts say moves so far have been too little, too late, with much more forceful measures needed to stem the economy's downward spiral.
The deepening crisis in the property sector along with worries about contagion risks could have a destabilizing impact on the world’s second largest economy, which has already weakened amid tepid domestic and foreign demand, faltering factory activity and rising unemployment.
* PMI data
The Eurozone and the UK are to release PMI data on Wednesday, which could provide insights into whether the European Central Bank will hike interest rates again in September and if the Bank of England opts for a big rate increase.
Eurozone and UK PMIs have been sliding in recent months, amid stagnation in the service sector coupled with a contraction in the manufacturing activity.
ECB President Christine Lagarde is to speak at Jackson Hole on Friday with investors looking for clues on the central bank’s next move in September.
In July, Lagarde said the ECB would keep an "open mind" when it came to future rate decisions, adding that policymakers were "moving to a stage where we are going to be data dependent".
* Oil prices
Oil prices posted their first weekly loss since June last week as growing concerns over the global demand outlook offset expectations of tightening supply on the back of output cuts by OPEC+ linchpins Saudi Arabia and Russia.
Oil prices were pressured lower as the worsening property crisis in China weighed on risk appetite. Meanwhile, Wednesday’s Fed minutes boosted Treasury yields and propelled the dollar to a fifth week of gains, weighing on the allure of commodities for overseas buyers.
"Concerns for investors remain focused on the tension between slowing global growth and still-tight global supplies," Rob Haworth, senior portfolio manager at U.S. Bank Asset Management told Reuters.
"Prices are likely to remain range-bound for now," Haworth added, noting that demand is in question for investors worried by the weak data from China.
investing.com
